Andrea Thompson and Climate Central write in their post on Scientific American, “[NOAA’s trajectory is] calling for a better than 90 percent chance that this event will stick around through the fall months, and an 85 percent chance it will last through the winter. Forecasters also took their first stab this year at projecting the intensity of the event, with the odds right now favoring a strong El Niño. There is, as always with such forecasts, the niggling possibility that it could remain a weak event or even fizzle out.”
There is hope that El Nino will bring the beginnings of what hopes to be the end of drought (though, as the drought has taken years of “dry” weather to create, it will take time to bring California back to the luscious state it once was).
According to Andrea Thompson and Climate Central, “Some of the shifts caused by El Niño can alter rainfall patterns, bringing drought to places like Indonesia and Australia, but increased rains to parts of South America. And if the El Niño is a strong one, more often than not it tends to mean more winter rains in California.”
NOAA’s synopsis: “There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.”